Sent: Tuesday, March 3, 2026 2:07 PM
Subject: Please Improve Corridor Data 

Dear City Manager and City Council Members,

I am a long time resident of Berkeley, a retired social scientist; my doctorate is in public health at UC Berkeley. I worked as a researcher for the State health department, Stanford and UC Davis in survey and environmental studies for many years. My publications are online at ResearchGate.net. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Margot-Smith/research 

At the City Council meeting on November 6th, 2025 I was appalled at the planning department survey presented to the City Council. The questions were poorly constructed and had 1200 respondents who were not described. We could not tell if they were residents of Berkeley, if they were realtors, or anything about them. The planning department presented the results of the survey to the City Council as if it had a great value. As I said at the meeting, the survey should be ignored.

Furthermore, in the Corridor Report presented to the Council, the Summary of Key Findings on page 5 provided NO data. According to the report, they talked to “Five local real estate brokers/investors/developers, City of Berkeley Office of Economic Development, Save Berkeley Shops Community Organization” period. 

We have no way of knowing if these listed are findings or opinions. If truly findings, they should be based on data. But the Summary of Key Findings provides no data, so must we assume it is based on the opinions of real estate brokers and an office in the city of Berkeley. The City Council is to make policy based on their opinions?

Summary of Key Findings or opinions?
• There are fewer small businesses operating in Berkeley today than there were ten years ago. Why? Because of the closing of small downtown businesses? Or?
•  Rezoning is unlikely to drive a spike in rents along the three corridors. How do we know? No data.
•  Any redevelopment along the corridors will be gradual and limited, not like downtown?
• National retail trends, increasing operating costs, and changing consumer preferences are creating challenges that pose bigger threats to small businesses than the corridor rezoning. Data?
•  Small businesses are likely to benefit from having more people living in the surrounding area, if they continue to exist after construction and rezoning.
•  The corridor neighborhoods have increasing shares of higher income households, which can be a positive change for small businesses, if they still exist.

Data on the cost of developing Berkeley's commercial corridors was also very limited. Not enough  information was given about current corridor businesses, or the impact of up zoning on existing businesses.

If I were examining commercial corridor development in a manner similar to what I did in my past work, I would first describe the current corridor and then examine how development would affect it and the city. Below are some ideas:  

Current Commercial Corridor Activity

The commercial areas considered for up zoning and increased construction are Solano Avenue, North Shattuck and the Elmwood. All are currently vital commercial areas. Solano Avenue in 2025 paid $  in sales taxes, $  in parking funds, and $  in other income to the city of Berkeley. Below is a table of Berkeley’s commercial corridor’s substantial financial contributions to the city:

 2025 Berkeley Corridor Income

Solano Ave North Shattuck Elmwood Total
# Business licenses.      N                      N                                 N                   NN
Sales Tax                      $                        $                                   $                    $$
Parking Fees                $                        $                                   $                    $$
Property Tax               $                        $                                   $                    $$
Developer Fees            $                        $                                   $                    $$
Other Income              $                        $                                   $                    $$

           Totals             $$$                     $$$                               $$$                 $$$$

The Cost of  Development

The possible cost of up zoning the commercial corridors can be seen by examining Berkeley's downtown development. The city has reduced income from downtown development and has many vacant stores.

                    Berkeley Downtown Development Income

2010 2015 2020 2025 total

# Bus. Licenses      N          N        N           N            N                                 
Sales Tax               $            $          $            $            $ 
Parking Fees        $            $          $            $            $ 
Property Taxes     $            $          $            $            $ 
Developer Fees.   $             $          $            $            $
Other Income.    $             $          $           $            $ 

  Total Income      $             $          $            $            $    

Data indicate that the city’s revenues have changed with the downtown development. Revenues have (increased) (decreased) showing that development must be carefully planned to continue funding the city budget and maintain Berkeley’s commercial vitality. The development of the Corridors could possibly decrease Berkeley’s income.

Vacancy rates in downtown Berkeley can also show the commercial and residential impact of development. Currently, the commercial vacancy rate in new buildings is  X, and although apartments are better, they stand at y. High rents in new buildings may explain high vacancy rates. Many owners of these new buildings are corporations.  Landlords may keep units vacant rather than lower rents to avoid reducing the building's valuation for refinancing or sale. Vacancies reduce tax income to the city.

Furthermore, financial conditions change. There are many (17?) stalled projects in the downtown area. We only can look at abandoned Center Street to see the impact of demolition and no construction. Is there any guarantee that this would not occur in the corridors? According to the Summary of Findings, “Any redevelopment along the corridors will be gradual and limited.” Is this based on data?

Corridor Development Potential impact on Small Business

Many small business owners in Corridor areas have told the City Council that they are concerned that they will suffer lost revenue during construction, and if their building is demolished, they will not be able to rent at a comparable rate. They commented that they had not been contacted by the city.

The Corridor Report does not provide data on commercial rents. Data helpful to both city planning and business owners are actual rents these businesses are paying for their current sites, and actual rents charged in newer Berkeley buildings.

                                             Commercial Rents in Berkeley

Size of business < sq ft > sq ft
Average Rents in Buildings built since 2010:          $                $
Average Rents in Building <2010:           $  $ 

From this data, one can see that Corridor business owners have (nothing to fear.) or (have real concerns. These must be addressed by the city, as city revenue will be lost and the vitality of the corridor commercial districts will be lost.) The commercial vitality and city income from corridor districts can be profoundly affected by unrestricted development.

Proposed Housing for Corridor Development

A justification for corridor development is felt to be the need for more housing in Berkeley. Currently, there are X  number of housing units in the three corridors. Of these, Y  are under rent control. If up zoned, it is possible that as many as X  additional housing units could be constructed and many rent controlled buildings demolished. Under current law, no new buildings would be under rent control.

Development of housing could affect housing available to current residents. In 2025, the median rent for older buildings was $X . To compare, we can examine the housing already constructed in the areas of Berkeley where permitted.

X  number of housing units were built in Berkeley since 2010; the 2025 median rent for one bedroom apartments is $X , which is (higher) (lower) than for buildings built prior to 2010. So, what will be the rent for one bedroom apartments in newly constructed buildings? Will these newer buildings meet the needs of Berkeley renters? How many current residents would be displaced?

Housing for Workers

Building affordable housing is considered desirable for addressing the rental needs of workers by both state and local governments . However, in Alameda County even affordable housing rents are high because affordable housing is based on the Area Median Income. In Alameda County, the Area Media income is $159,000; affordable housing is for people making $100,000 a year; low income housing is 80% or $80,000, and very low income housing, 50% or $50,000 a year for single persons.

According to figures from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, average salaries of Alameda County workers show that  few can afford “affordable” rents. Management, legal, engineering salaries are more than $100k a year; education and construction, $68,000; sales and transportation, about $40,000.  (https://livingwage.mit.edu/counties/06001) This shows that most workers are Low Income, Very Low Income or Extremely Low Income under affordable housing guide lines.  Very few new buildings supply housing for these workers.

According to data from ABAG, Berkeley currently has built 126% of its RHNA housing at market rate and only 16% for low income residents. Housing for workers is lacking.

Housing for Elders

At the February 10th meeting of the Berkeley City Council, the housing developer for 2109 Virginia Street Patrick Kennedy stated  “This project is targeting older residents who are interested in downsizing, empty nesters who are interested in downsizing. All of these people have no place to go if they want to stay in Berkeley and they sell their Berkeley house…it will allow legacy Berkeley’s to stay in Berkeley instead of moving to Walnut Creek, ”  He is assuming that his apartments will be attractive to older residents who wish to downsize, however, he presented no data to substantiate this statement.

Berkeley elders have constraints on downsizing. It is likely that their houses are paid for, are taxed under Prop 13, and that their income is fixed. Moving to a Berkeley apartment would mean higher taxes and high payments. If they consider the house to be their family’s inheritance, they are not likely to sell.

Home sales in these zip codes 94707 and 94708 numbered 283 in 2024 and 266 in 2025. Information is not available as to the age of the sellers or where they located after sale.

Mr. Kennedy also stated that selling these homes would provide more opportunity for young families to move to Berkeley. Under current conditions, these young families will buy homes of over one million dollars with taxes of about $15,000 a year. It would be interesting to have data to see if this is occurring.

Furthermore, according to Kennedy, providing apartments for downsizing elders will “liberate a lot of Prop 13 houses and …generate a huge amount of taxable Berkeley property, around 100 million dollars to the City of Berkeley,”  Again, Mr. Kennedy made assumptions about where Berkeley elders will locate that he did not substantiate with data.

To provide more information to the city for better planning and to find out if Mr. Kennedy’s assumptions are true, the city could survey home sellers for the last 5 years and ask why they sold and where they relocated. 

Or, the city could take a carefully sampled survey of 7,629 home owners in zip codes 94707 and 94708 to find out the homeowners’ plans.  According to the 2020 US Census, over 85% of the homes in zip codes 94707 and 94709 were owner occupied, numbering 7,629 homes. More than half of the population in 2020 were over age 60.

Are the older homeowners planning to downsize? If so, where do they plan to live? In Berkeley, or elsewhere? In assisted living?  Are they planning to leave their homes to their families? Will their families inherit their Prop 13 taxes? Data will provide information to the city as to the success of building apartments for elders and whether they should be approved.

Effects of high rent developments

The impact of creating more apartments with high rents needs to be examined. For example, do high rents mean that many apartments are shared? How many apartments are shared by co-tenants? Is there data on the number of people sharing one apartment? What is the vacancy rate of the high rent apartments? Where do working families find housing? Do high rents increase long commutes to work? How do high rents impact Berkeley demographics, age, income levels? Obtaining information on the housing built in the last ten years could provide data on our housing situation.

There are many studies showing that increased homelessness is due to high rents. (Univ. of SF). Yes, Berkeley needs more housing, but housing that meets the needs of its residents.  

Buildings possible in the Corridor Areas

The Corridor Report provides data on the types of  buildings that could be built and the laws governing density bonuses and other information. Given the lack of data and even misinformation in other parts of the Corridor Report, one may wish to verify these sections.

It is my hope that city departments can supply the figures missing here. It would give the City Council much more information about development and better guide its policies.

Very truly yours,

Margot Smith, Dr.P.H.